The 4% Rule in 2026: Morningstar Says 3.7%, Bengen Now Says 4.7% - Which One Applies to You?
Morningstar says 3.7%, Bengen says 4.7%, and the classic rule says 4.0%. See one retirement calculator scenario tested across all three rates.
Retirement Calculator
Learn more about this calculator
Most retirement calculators ask three questions and spit out a number. Ours does the work an actual financial planner would do — modeling sequence-of-returns risk, life events that shift your trajectory, the difference between safe-withdrawal-rate strategies, and the effect of Social Security claim timing.
You enter your current age, balances, savings rate, and target retirement age. We run a Monte Carlo simulation across 1,000 randomized market paths and tell you the probability your money outlasts you under each strategy you want to compare. Add a child's college payment, a paid-off mortgage, an inheritance, a career break — every life event flows through the projection.
When the answer changes — and it will — adjust the inputs and see the new probability immediately. Save scenarios, compare them side-by-side, and share the plan with your spouse or advisor.
What this calculator covers
Use these as a quick scope check before you rely on the output.
- •Monte Carlo simulation across 1,000 randomized market paths
- •Sequence-of-returns risk modeling, not just average returns
- •Life events: college payments, inheritances, career breaks
- •Withdrawal strategies: 4% rule, guardrails, dynamic spending
- •Social Security claim-age comparison
- •Save and compare unlimited scenarios
- •Share scenario links with anyone
Frequently asked questions
How is this different from a basic retirement calculator?
Basic calculators assume an average annual return and project a straight line. Real markets move in waves, and the order of returns matters enormously when you're drawing down. Our calculator runs Monte Carlo simulations to surface that sequence-of-returns risk and gives you a probability of success rather than a single number.
Do I need to create an account?
No. The calculator works without signing in. If you want to save scenarios or share them, sign-in is free with Google or email.
What withdrawal strategies do you support?
The classic 4% rule, Guyton-Klinger guardrails, dynamic spending tied to portfolio performance, and a fixed-real-dollar strategy. You can compare any two side-by-side.
Can I model early retirement or financial independence?
Yes — the Financial Independence Planner focuses on the early-retirement question directly: if you retire at a chosen age with a chosen monthly spending level, how long does the money last?
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